Revisited, if you though medical science was bad, consider psycholgy...

    Recall  John Ioannidis's paper -JAMA. 2005;294(2):218-228. doi:10.1001/jama.294.2.218 in which he zoomed in on 49 of the most highly regarded research findings in medicine over the previous 13 years(1990-2003), as judged by the science community’s two standard measures:1)  the papers had appeared in the journals most widely cited in research like the New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA, and The Lancet  2) were the most widely cited articles in these journals. Thirty-four of these claims had been retested, and 14 of these, or 41 percent, had been convincingly shown to be wrong or significantly exaggerated.
     

Arthroscopic Surgery for Meniscal Tears Without Arthritis? Meta-Analysis Suggests No Benefit

By Amy Orciari Herman

Edited by David G. Fairchild, MD, MPH

Arthroscopic surgery appears no better than nonoperative treatments in patients with degenerative meniscal tears without osteoarthritis, according to a meta-analysis in the Canadian Medical Association Journal.

The analysis included seven randomized trials in which some 800 patients with degenerative meniscal tears and mild or no osteoarthritis were assigned to undergo either arthroscopic meniscal debridement or nonoperative treatment (for example, exercise programs, steroid injections, or sham surgery). Arthroscopic surgery appeared to offer no meaningful benefit over the other treatments in terms of pain or function within 6 months or 2 years.

The authors conclude that "a trial of nonoperative management should be the first-line treatment" in this patient population.

Link(s):

CMAJ article (Free abstract)

Background: NEJM Journal Watch General Medicine summary on arthroscopic surgery vs. sham surgery in such patients (Your NEJM Journal Watch registration required)

- See more at: http://www.jwatch.org/fw109221/2014/08/26/arthroscopic-surgery-meniscal-tears-without-arthritis?query=pfw#sthash.UYQNjNLD.dpuf

More Questions Raised About Dabigatran

By Larry Husten

Edited by Susan Sadoughi, MD, and Richard Saitz, MD, MPH, FACP, FASAM

Relying on new evidence along with previously disclosed data, an investigation in the BMJ casts doubt on the reliability of data supporting the anticoagulant dabigatran (Pradaxa).

The most important new accusation is that Boehringer Ingelheim "failed to share with regulators information about the potential benefits of monitoring anticoagulant activity and adjusting the dose to make sure the drug is working as safely and effectively as possible. The company also withheld analyses that calculated how many major bleeds dose adjustment could prevent."

Editorialists write that the articles raise "serious questions" about dabigatran. They say they're concerned about "potentially higher than reported bleeding risk; the possibility of undertreating or overtreating with fixed doses, especially in older patients and patients with changing renal function; the unknown value of monitoring dabigatran levels and adjusting the dose; and the lack of a specific reversal agent."

The editorialists "suggest a shared decision that balances patients' tolerance of unknown risks, their tolerance of routine laboratory monitoring and dose adjustment, and their risk of stroke."

Boehringer Ingelheim strongly disputes the accusations.

General health checks in adults for reducing morbidity and mortality from disease Lasse T Krogsbøll*, Karsten Juhl Jørgensen, Christian Grønhøj Larsen, Peter C Gøtzsche Editorial Group: Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group Published Online: 17 OCT 2012 Assessed as up-to-date: 4 JUL 2012 DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD009009.pub2 Copyright © 2013 The Cochrane Collaboration. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract

Background

General health checks are common elements of health care in some countries. These aim to detect disease and risk factors for disease with the purpose of reducing morbidity and mortality. Most of the commonly used screening tests offered in general health checks have been incompletely studied. Also, screening leads to increased use of diagnostic and therapeutic interventions, which can be harmful as well as beneficial. It is, therefore, important to assess whether general health checks do more good than harm.

Objectives

We aimed to quantify the benefits and harms of general health checks with an emphasis on patient-relevant outcomes such as morbidity and mortality rather than on surrogate outcomes such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol levels.

Search methods

We searched The Cochrane Library, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) Trials Register, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Healthstar, CINAHL, ClinicalTrials.gov and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) to July 2012. Two authors screened titles and abstracts, assessed papers for eligibility and read reference lists. One author used citation tracking (Web of Knowledge) and asked trialists about additional studies.

Selection criteria

We included randomised trials comparing health checks with no health checks in adults unselected for disease or risk factors. We did not include geriatric trials. We defined health checks as screening general populations for more than one disease or risk factor in more than one organ system.

Data collection and analysis

Two authors independently extracted data and assessed the risk of bias in the trials. We contacted authors for additional outcomes or trial details when necessary. For mortality outcomes we analysed the results with random-effects model meta-analysis, and for other outcomes we did a qualitative synthesis as meta-analysis was not feasible.

Main results

We included 16 trials, 14 of which had available outcome data (182,880 participants). Nine trials provided data on total mortality (155,899 participants, 11,940 deaths), median follow-up time nine years, giving a risk ratio of 0.99 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95 to 1.03). Eight trials provided data on cardiovascular mortality (152,435 participants, 4567 deaths), risk ratio 1.03 (95% CI 0.91 to 1.17) and eight trials on cancer mortality (139,290 participants, 3663 deaths), risk ratio 1.01 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.12). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses did not alter these findings.

We did not find an effect on clinical events or other measures of morbidity but one trial found an increased occurrence of hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia with screening and one trial found an increased occurence of self-reported chronic disease. One trial found a 20% increase in the total number of new diagnoses per participant over six years compared to the control group. No trials compared the total number of prescriptions, but two out of four trials found an increased number of people using antihypertensive drugs. Two out of four trials found small beneficial effects on self-reported health, but this could be due to reporting bias as the trials were not blinded. We did not find an effect on admission to hospital, disability, worry, additional visits to the physician, or absence from work, but most of these outcomes were poorly studied. We did not find useful results on the number of referrals to specialists, the number of follow-up tests after positive screening results, or the amount of surgery.

Authors' conclusions

General health checks did not reduce morbidity or mortality, neither overall nor for cardiovascular or cancer causes, although the number of new diagnoses was increased. Important harmful outcomes, such as the number of follow-up diagnostic procedures or short term psychological effects, were often not studied or reported and many trials had methodological problems. With the large number of participants and deaths included, the long follow-up periods used, and considering that cardiovascular and cancer mortality were not reduced, general health checks are unlikely to be beneficial.

 

Jump to…

Plain language summary

General health checks for reducing illness and mortality

General health checks involve multiple tests in a person who does not feel ill with the purpose of finding disease early, preventing disease from developing, or providing reassurance. Health checks are a common element of health care in some countries. To many people health checks intuitively make sense, but experience from screening programmes for individual diseases have shown that the benefits may be smaller than expected and the harms greater. One possible harm from health checks is the diagnosis and treatment of conditions that were not destined to cause symptoms or death. Their diagnosis will, therefore, be superfluous and carry the risk of unnecessary treatment.

We identified 16 randomised trials which had compared a group of adults offered general health checks to a group not offered health checks. Results were available from 14 trials, including 182,880 participants. Nine trials studied the risk of death and included 155,899 participants and 11,940 deaths. There was no effect on the risk of death, or on the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases or cancer. We did not find an effect on the risk of illness but one trial found an increased number of people identified with high blood pressure and high cholesterol, and one trial found an increased number with chronic diseases. One trial reported the total number of new diagnoses per participant and found a 20% increase over six years compared to the control group. No trials compared the total number of new prescriptions but two out of four trials found an increased number of people using drugs for high blood pressure. Two out of four trials found that health checks made people feel somewhat healthier, but this result is not reliable. We did not find that health checks had an effect on the number of admissions to hospital, disability, worry, the number of referrals to specialists, additional visits to the physician, or absence from work, but most of these outcomes were poorly studied. None of the trials reported on the number of follow-up tests after positive screening results, or the amount of surgery used.

One reason for the apparent lack of effect may be that primary care physicians already identify and intervene when they suspect a patient to be at high risk of developing disease when they see them for other reasons. Also, those at high risk of developing disease may not attend general health checks when invited. Most of the trials were old, which makes the results less applicable to today's settings because the treatments used for conditions and risk factors have changed.

With the large number of participants and deaths included, the long follow-up periods used in the trials, and considering that death from cardiovascular diseases and cancer were not reduced, general health checks are unlikely to be beneficial.

Annual Screening Mammography Produces Overdiagnoses, No Mortality Benefit

Annual Screening Mammography Produces Overdiagnoses, No Mortality Benefit

By Joe Elia

Annual mammography screening in women under age 60 does not confer a breast cancer mortality advantage, and it results in more than 20% overdiagnosis among the lesions found, according to a follow-up of the Canadian National Breast Screening Study.

As reported in BMJ, between 1980 and 1985, some 90,000 women aged 40 to 59 were randomized to 5 years of annual mammography or no mammography (women aged 40-49 in the mammography group and all women aged 50-59 received annual physical breast examinations).

After up to 25 years' follow-up, there was no discernible difference between groups in breast cancer mortality. Of the screen-detected tumors, 22% were overdiagnoses — one for every 424 women in the mammography arm.

Andrew Kaunitz, an OB/GYN with NEJM Journal Watch, comments: "This important Canadian report documents the failure of screening mammography to impact mortality from breast cancer, as well as breast cancer overdiagnosis. Based on these and other recently published data, clinicians and women should move away from starting screens among women in their 40s and from screening annually. While we reevaluate the practice of screening mammography, adopting the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force 2009 recommendations (beginning screening in average-risk women at age 50 and screening biennially) would appear prudent."

PSA testing

    " It is difficult to get someone to understand something when their pay depends on them not understanding it. " Upton Sinclair
     Eg. The United States Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) made a final recommendation on May 21, 2012 which aligned consistently with the draft recommendation publicly announced on October 7, 2011.

The recommendation is against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) based screening for healthy men, asserting that there is “moderate or high certainty that the service has no benefit or that the harms outweigh the benefits,” 

VS -The American Urological Association, on the other hand, says the decision to undergo PSA testing should be individualized. Last year, the group criticized the USPSTF for doing "a great disservice by disparaging what is now the only widely available test for prostate cancer."

PSA Testing in Older Men Continues Unabated Despite USPSTF Recommendation

The rate of screening for prostate cancer with PSA testing has remained unchanged in elderly men despite a 2008 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation against such testing, according to a research letter in JAMA.
Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, investigators compared PSA screening rates in 2005 and 2010. (In 2008, the USPSTF recommended against screening in men aged 75 and older.) In all age groups — including the elderly — screening rates remained unchanged in the two periods.
The authors say the discrepancy between the recommendation and the observed practice pattern "may reflect lack of guideline awareness, financial incentives, or patient or physician confidence in PSA screening."

Cochrane Review Stirs Controversy Over Statins in Primary Prevention Sue Hughes

January 21, 2011 (London, United Kingdom) — A new Cochrane review has provoked controversy by concluding that there is not enough evidence to recommend the widespread use of statins in the primary prevention of heart disease [1]. The authors of the new Cochrane meta-analysis, led by Dr Fiona Taylor (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK), issued a press release questioning the benefit of statins in primary prevention and suggesting that the previous data showing benefit may have been biased by industry-funded studies. This has led to headlines in many UK newspapers saying that the drugs are being overused and that millions of people are needlessly exposing themselves to potential side effects. This has angered researchers who have conducted other large statin meta-analyses, who say the drugs are beneficial, even in the lowest-risk individuals, and their risk of side effects is negligible. They maintain that the Cochrane reviewers have misrepresented the data, which they say could have serious negative consequences for many patients currently taking these agents. The Cochrane authors reviewed data from 14 trials involving 34 272 patients. Outcomes in patients given statins were compared with outcomes in patients given placebos or usual care. Although results suggested that deaths were reduced on statins, the researchers say the effect is not large enough to justify the cost/effort and risk of adverse effects. Senior author Dr Shah Ebrahim (South Asia Network for Chronic Disease, New Delhi, India) told heartwire that their review differed from others done in primary prevention in that it looked at just those at low risk, limiting the studies included to just those with populations where <10% had a previous history of CVD. It is probably a real effect but it means a lot of people have to be treated to gain this small benefit. Ebrahim commented to heartwire : "If you look at the hard end points of all deaths and coronary deaths, the effects are consistent with both benefit and with the play of chance. But importantly, the absolute benefits are really rather small--1000 people have to be treated for one year to prevent one death. It is probably a real effect, but it means a lot of people have to be treated to gain this small benefit. As we don't know the harms, it seems wrong-minded to me to treat everyone with a statin. In these circumstances, lifestyle changes and stopping smoking would be far preferable." I object to the conclusions they have drawn from their review. But Dr Colin Baigent (Clinical Trials Service Unit, Oxford, UK) commented to heartwire : "I object to the conclusions they have drawn from their review. They say there is not good evidence of benefit, but their own data show significant reductions in deaths and cardiac events." And Baigent further objects to the Cochrane authors' suggestion that harms are not known with statins. "They didn't show any increase in adverse events in their review, but they then say the benefit is not worth the risk. That doesn't make sense." Cochrane Results The Cochrane review showed that in the eight trials that reported on total mortality, none of the individual trials showed strong evidence of a reduction in total mortality, but when the data were pooled, a relative risk reduction of 17% was observed with statin treatment. On combined fatal and nonfatal CHD events, nine trials reported on this end point, with four trials showing evidence of a reduction in this combined outcome, which was maintained in the pooled analysis, with a 28% relative reduction. Seven trials reported on fatal and nonfatal stroke, and on pooled analysis, statin treatment was associated with a 22% relative reduction. Cochrane Review: Risk Ratio of Major Events With Statins in Lower-Risk Primary-Prevention Patients Outcome Risk ratio (95% CI) Total mortality 0.83 (0.73–0.95) Fatal and nonfatal CHD events 0.72 (0.65–0.79) Fatal and nonfatal stroke 0.78 (0.65–0.94) No excess in combined adverse events, cancers, or specific biochemical markers were found. The authors conclude: "This current systematic review highlights the shortcomings in the published trials of statins for primary prevention. Selective reporting and inclusion of people with cardiovascular disease in many of the trials . . . in previous reviews of [statins'] role in primary prevention make the evidence impossible to disentangle without individual patient data." They say that in people at high risk of cardiovascular events (>20% 10-year risk), "it is likely that the benefits of statins are greater than potential short-term harms, although long-term effects (over decades) remain unknown." They conclude: "Any decision to use statins for primary prevention should be made cautiously and in the light of an assessment of the patient's overall cardiovascular risk profile. Widespread use of statins in people at low risk of cardiovascular events--below a 1% annual all-cause mortality risk or an annual CVD event rate of below 2% observed in the control groups in the trials considered here--is not supported by the existing evidence." Latest Oxford Meta-Analysis Not Included The Cochrane review did not include the recent meta-analysis from the Oxford group, published late last year, which showed a clear reduction in events with statin therapy in primary-prevention patients. Baigent noted that this meta-analysis was more reliable than the Cochrane review, as the Oxford researchers used individual patient data from all the trials. "Our 2010 meta-analysis in primary prevention is substantially more complete than the Cochrane review and provides direct and overwhelmingly statistically convincing evidence of a clear reduction in events in all patient groups, right down to those at the lowest risk." On the possible hazards of taking these drugs, Baigent says: "Statin therapy is very safe. The most serious hazard, rhabdomyolysis, is very rare, and most often seen at high doses. There is a possibility that reducing LDL cholesterol might increase the risk of hemorrhagic stroke, but even in primary prevention these hazards would be much smaller than the benefits, and there is no reliable evidence for other hazards mentioned by the Cochrane authors, such as depression and cognitive impairment." It All Comes Down to Economics Baigent says the only argument against using statins in low-risk people is economic. "The absolute benefits of statin therapy become very small when used among people at low absolute risk, so it is important that the costs of such treatment are considered when weighing how widely statins should be used. That is a government decision." In the UK, the National Institute for Clinical Excellence [NICE] currently recommends that statins not be used for people with a CHD risk below 20% over 10 years. Ebrahim says the Cochrane conclusions are in line with this. But Baigent argues that the benefits of statins are clear at levels far below this threshold. "Whether or not it is economic to use them in the lowest-risk individuals is not for me to say, but generic statins are now very cheap, and there is clear evidence of benefit and safety based on substantial numbers of individuals studied in large-scale trials. So, when all the relevant randomized evidence is considered, there does not seem to me to be any justification at all for the Cochrane authors' claim that the evidence is unclear on this issue." Educational Programs Also of Little Benefit In a separate Cochrane review [2], the same group looked at the use of "healthy heart programs" that use counseling and educational methods to encourage people to reduce their risks for developing heart disease. These risk factors include high cholesterol, excessive salt intake, high blood pressure, excess weight, a high-fat diet, smoking, diabetes, and a sedentary lifestyle. They reviewed 55 trials that aimed to reduce more than one risk factor in people without evidence of cardiovascular disease. Results showed that after a median duration of 12 months of follow-up, multiple risk-factor intervention was associated with small reductions in risk factors, including blood pressure, cholesterol, and smoking, but had little or no impact on the risk of coronary heart disease mortality or morbidity. They conclude: "The methods of attempting behavior change in the general population are limited and do not appear to be effective. Different approaches to behavior change are needed and should be tested empirically before being widely promoted, particularly in developing countries where cardiovascular disease rates are rising." In an accompanying editorial [3], Dr Carl Heneghan (University of Oxford, UK) suggests an alternative approach for policy is to focus on populationwide prevention. He reports that "legislating for smoke-free public spaces, redesigning public spaces to improve exercise, or reducing daily dietary salt intake prove generally effective and can be cost-saving interventions. Given the scale of the worldwide CVD problem, large-scale commissioned studies of multiple risk-factor interventions are urgently required." References Taylor F, Ward K, Moore THM, et al. Statins for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2011; 1 (CD004816). Ebrahim S, Taylor F, Ward K et al. Multiple risk factor interventions for primary prevention of coronary heart disease. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2011; 1 (CD001561). Heneghan C. Considerable uncertainty remains in the evidence for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease [editorial].Cochrane Libr2011 (January 19, 2011). Available here. Heartwire © 2011 Medscape, LLC

Red-Wine Researcher Charged With 'Photoshop' Fraud Robert Lowes

January 13, 2012 — A University of Connecticut researcher known for touting the health benefits of red wine is guilty of 145 counts of fabricating and falsifying data with image-editing software, according to a 3-year university investigation made public Wednesday. The researcher, Dipak K. Das, PhD, is a director of the university's Cardiovascular Research Center (CRC) and a professor in the Department of Surgery. The university stated in a press release that it has frozen all externally funded research in Dr. Das's lab and turned down $890,000 in federal research grants awarded to him. The process to dismiss Dr. Das from the university is already underway, the university added. Dr. Dipak K. Das A university special review board (SRB) found evidence of research fraud in 2 dozen published papers dating back to 2002 as well as 3 grant applications. The university said it has notified 11 journals that published the studies of its findings. The publications include The American Journal of Physiology — Heart and Circulatory Physiology and the Journal of Molecular and Cellular Cardiology. Some of the studies asserted that a substance in red wine called resveratrol promoted heart health. "We have a responsibility to correct the scientific record and inform peer researchers across the country," said Philip Austin, interim vice president of health affairs at the University of Connecticut. The review board findings "point to a pervasive attitude of disregard within the CRC for commonly accepted scientific practices in the publication and reporting of research data," its report stated. "Given the large number of irregularities discovered in this investigation...the SRB can only conclude that they were the result of intentional acts of data falsification and fabrication, designed to deceive." The review board report stated that the US Office of Research Integrity (ORI) tipped off the university in 2008 about alleged fraud involving a 2007 article in Free Radical Biology and Medicine coauthored by Dr. Das titled "Redox regulation of resveratrol-mediated switching of death signal into survival signal." The ORI is now conducting its own investigation of Dr. Das, according to the university. Other members of the CRC played a part in the research fraud, and they are under investigation as well. "No Resemblance to Any Legitimate Experiment" The exact nature of the alleged fraud involves images of "blots" obtained through gel electrophoresis that were featured in article figures. Most of the figures presented Western blots, designed for studying proteins. Using Photoshop software as a forensic tool, the review board determined that dozens of images bore evidence of inappropriate manipulation by "photo imaging software." The most egregious examples were pasted-up "artificial blots" that "bear no resemblance to any legitimate experiment" and represent total fabrications. The board also found examples of background erasure, image duplication, and images having been spliced together. The board noted that splicing various blot images together can serve a legitimate purpose but that researchers must precisely describe the manipulation that they perform. Such explanations were lacking in articles coming out of Dr. Das's laboratory. The review board report stated that as head of the lab and senior author of all but one of the tainted articles, Dr. Das "bears principal responsibility for the fabrication and/or falsification that occurred." Furthermore, the evidence "strongly suggests" that Dr. Das was directly involved in faking images for publication. Some of that evidence was pulled from his personal computer. Accused Researcher Cites "Racial Hatred" The report quoted Dr. Das as saying he does not know who prepared the figures that appeared in the journal articles. It stated that he has provided "no substantive information" that could explain the research irregularities. An exhibit in the report contains what the board called Dr. Das's response to the investigation. In a document dated July 30, 2010, Dr. Das said the accusations against him are part of a campaign to rid the university health center of the "Indian community." "I became the Devil for the Health Center, and so did all the Indians working for me," he wrote. "The evidence for conspiracy and racial hatred is overwhelming." He also alleged that the stress of battling the university administration led to a brain hemorrhage and stroke. Medscape Medical News did not receive a reply to an email sent to Dr. Das at his university email address. A company called Resveratrol Partners, which markets a resveratrol-based dietary supplement called Longevinex, said yesterday in a press release that "Dr. Das is attending a scientific conference in India and has not been able to respond to the allegations." The Web site of Resveratrol Partners highlights some of Dr. Das's studies on the cardio benefits of resveratrol. In yesterday's press release, Resveratrol Partners managing partner Bill Sardi said that Dr. Das does not have any business relationship with the company and that other researchers have confirmed the value of Longevinex. Medscape Medical News © 2012 WebMD, LLC Send comments and news tips to news@medscape.net.

Relenza and Tamiflu Questioned

Patients may ask about a widely reported call from the Cochrane Collaboration for full disclosure of information about clinical studies leading to the approval of the neuraminidase inhibitors oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) used to treat influenza.

The reviewers point out that data on oseltamivir from 8 trials of a 10-trial meta-analysis remain unpublished and were not available either from the studies' authors or the manufacturer. That meta-analysis "has been the sole publication" cited by the CDC in support of its treatment guidelines.

On the basis of drug company data submitted to government agencies, the reviewers estimate that 60% of patient data from oseltamivir's phase III trials "have never been published." Using such "regulatory information" rather than published journal studies, the reviewers estimate that oseltamivir showed "no evidence of effect" on hospitalization rates; there was not enough information available to assess the drug's effects on complications or viral transmission.

FDA Finds U.S. Drug Research Firm Faked Documents

WASHINGTON (Reuters) Jul 26 - Drug companies that had medicines tested by contractor Cetero Research might have to reevaluate results, U.S. regulators warned after the firm was found faking documents and manipulating samples.

The Food and Drug Administration said on Tuesday two 2010 inspections, an internal company investigation and a third-party audit uncovered "significant instances of misconduct and violations" at a Cetero facility in Houston.

The Cary, North Carolina-based firm does early-phase clinical research and bioanalytics for a number of drugmakers. The pharmaceutical companies can then use those studies as supporting evidence in drug approval applications to the FDA.

"The pattern of misconduct was serious enough to raise concerns about the integrity of the data Cetero generated during the five-year time frame," the FDA said, warning drugmakers they might have to repeat or confirm any studies Cetero did in support of their applications between April 2005 and June 2010.

It remains unclear which drugmakers have used Cetero's services to apply for regulatory approvals and the FDA is asking companies to identify such instances. The regulators said the measure is precautionary and the safety and efficacy of drugs already on the market are unlikely to be affected.

The FDA inspected Cetero in May and December last year and found falsified records about studies.

Specifically, in at least 1,900 instances between April 2005 and June 2009, laboratory technicians identified as conducting certain studies were not actually present at Cetero facilities at that time, the FDA said in its May report.

The FDA also said at the time that Cetero might have "fixed" studies to get the desired result, or did not include failed results in their report.

"Cetero's May 2010 and December 2010 responses are inadequate because the scope of their internal investigation was far too narrow to identify and adequately address the root cause of these systemic failures," the regulators said.

Cetero was not immediately available for comment.

Screening Does Not Reduce Ovarian Cancer Mortality

Screening with transvaginal ultrasound and CA-125 measurement does not reduce ovarian cancer mortality, according to results from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial published in JAMA.


Some 78,000 women aged 55 to 74 without histories of ovarian cancer were randomized to usual care, or to screening with annual transvaginal ultrasound for 4 years and annual CA-125 blood testing for up to 6 years. During roughly 12 years' follow-up, the primary endpoint — ovarian cancer mortality — did not differ between the groups.


Roughly 3000 women had false-positive results on screening, one third of whom had surgery (e.g., oophorectomy) as part of the diagnostic evaluation. Among these, the rate of major surgical complications was 21 per 100 procedures.
=Just wondering if transvaginal ultrasound and CA-125 measurement will decrease or stop. Cynics doubt it

antidepressants dont work?

Abstract

Background: This paper examines the current status of research on the efficacy and effectiveness of antidepressants. Methods: This paper reviews four meta-analyses of efficacy trials submitted to America’s Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and analyzes STAR*D (Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression), the largest antidepressant effectiveness trial ever conducted. Results: Meta-analyses of FDA trials suggest that antidepressants are only marginally efficacious compared to placebos and document profound publication bias that inflates their apparent efficacy. These meta-analyses also document a second form of bias in which researchers fail to report the negative results for the pre-specified primary outcome measure submitted to the FDA, while highlighting in published studies positive results from a secondary or even a new measure as though it was their primary measure of interest. The STAR*D analysis found that the effectiveness of antidepressant therapies was probably even lower than the modest one reported by the study authors with an apparent progressively increasing dropout rate across each study phase. Conclusions: The reviewed findings argue for a reappraisal of the current recommended standard of care of depression.
Efficacy and Effectiveness of
Antidepressants: Current Status of
Research
H. Edmund Pigott a Allan M. Leventhal b Gregory S. Alter a John J. Boren b
a NeuroAdvantage, LLC, Clarksville, Md. , b Department of Psychology, American University,
Washington, D.C. , USA

ncep 2004 guidelines

The NCEP’s 2004 guideline update garnered headlines by recommending lower targets for bad cholesterol, which would put more Americans on the drugs. But there was also a heated controversy in the medical community over the fact that 8 of the 9 experts on the panel had financial ties to industry. “The guideline process went awry,” says Michigan State’s Barry. He and 34 other experts sent a petition of protest to the National Institutes of Health, saying the evidence was weak and the panel members were biased by their ties to companies.

Meta-Analysis Favors Pioglitazone in 'Real World' Settings

In an analysis of observational studies comparing pioglitazone versus rosiglitazone, pioglitazone emerges as the safer of the two.

Analyzing studies comprising over 800,000 patients with type 2 diabetes, researchers report in BMJ that use of rosiglitazone was associated with a "modest but statistically significant increase in the odds of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and death compared with patients receiving pioglitazone in real world settings."

In 2010, the European Medicines Agency recommended withdrawal of rosiglitazone from the market, and the U.S. FDA placed restrictions on its use.

Editorialists ask why, despite the association with increased risks for heart failure and the availability of other agents, thiazolidinediones remain among the leading prescribed drugs in the U.S. That popularity, they conclude, "says much about how healthcare has become less about promoting patients' interests ... and much more about promoting other interests, including those of the drug industry."

benicar ups cv death but lowers protein in urine in type 2 dbtcs

Olmesartan, an angiotensin-receptor blocker, delays the development of microalbuminuria in patients with type 2 diabetes and well-controlled blood pressure, but its use is associated with an increased risk of death from cardiovascular events, according to a New England Journal of Medicine study.

The ROADMAP trial, sponsored by the drug's manufacturer, randomized some 4500 diabetic patients with normoalbuminuria to daily olmesartan or placebo. In addition, participants' blood pressures were treated to maintain values under 130/80 mm Hg.

After a median 3-year follow-up, the olmesartan group showed a significant advantage over placebo in delaying time to onset of microalbuminuria (the primary outcome). However, fatal cardiovascular events were more common with olmesartan.

An editorialist writes that the finding of delayed microalbuminuria was not unanticipated. And given the increased cardiovascular mortality found with olmesartan, she asks why wouldn't other renin-angiotensin blocking drugs be prescribed if they are not associated with fatal complications?

Statins for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease

Summary
Statins for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is ranked as the number one cause of mortality and is a major cause of morbidity world wide. Reducing high blood cholesterol which is a risk factor for CVD events is an important goal of medical treatment. Statins are the first-choice agents. Since the early statin trials were reported, several reviews of the effects of statins have been published highlighting their benefits particularly in people with a past history of CVD. However for people without a past history of CVD (primary prevention), the evidence is less clear. The aim of this systematic review is to assess the effects, both in terms of benefits and harms of statins for the primary prevention of CVD. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE and EMBASE until 2007. We found 14 randomised control trials with 16 trial arms (34,272 patients) dating from 1994 to 2006. All were randomised control trials comparing statins with usual care or placebo. Duration of treatment was minimum one year and with follow up of a minimum of six months. All cause mortality. coronary heart disease and stroke events were reduced with the use of statins as was the need for revascularisations. Statin treatment reduced blood cholesterol. Taking statins did not increase the risk of adverse effects such as cancer. and few trials reported on costs or quality of life. This current systematic review highlights the shortcomings in the published trials and we recommend that caution should be taken in prescribing statins for primary prevention among people at low cardiovascular risk.

This is a Cochrane review abstract and plain language summary, prepared and maintained by The Cochrane Collaboration, currently published in The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2011 Issue 1, Copyright © 2011 The Cochrane Collaboration. Published by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.. The full text of the review is available in The Cochrane Library (ISSN 1464-780X).

This record should be cited as: Taylor F, Ward K, Moore THM, Burke M, Davey Smith G, Casas J-P, Ebrahim S. Statins for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2011, Issue 1. Art. No.: CD004816. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD004816.pub4

Editorial Group: Heart Group

This version first published online: January 19. 2011
Last assessed as up-to-date: September 8. 2007

Abstract
Background
Reducing high blood cholesterol, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in people with and without a past history of coronary heart disease (CHD) is an important goal of pharmacotherapy. Statins are the first-choice agents. Previous reviews of the effects of statins have highlighted their benefits in people with coronary artery disease. The case for primary prevention, however, is less clear.

Objectives
To assess the effects, both harms and benefits, of statins in people with no history of CVD.

Search strategy
To avoid duplication of effort, we checked reference lists of previous systematic reviews. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (Issue 1, 2007), MEDLINE (2001 to March 2007) and EMBASE (2003 to March 2007). There were no language restrictions.


Selection criteria
Randomised controlled trials of statins with minimum duration of one year and follow-up of six months, in adults with no restrictions on their total low density lipoprotein (LDL) or high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, and where 10% or less had a history of CVD, were included.

Data collection and analysis
Two authors independently selected studies for inclusion and extracted data. Outcomes included all cause mortality, fatal and non-fatal CHD, CVD and stroke events, combined endpoints (fatal and non-fatal CHD, CVD and stroke events), change in blood total cholesterol concentration, revascularisation, adverse events, quality of life and costs. Relative risk (RR) was calculated for dichotomous data, and for continuous data pooled weighted mean differences (with 95% confidence intervals) were calculated.

Main results
Fourteen randomised control trials (16 trial arms; 34,272 participants) were included. Eleven trials recruited patients with specific conditions (raised lipids, diabetes, hypertension, microalbuminuria). All-cause mortality was reduced by statins (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.95) as was combined fatal and non-fatal CVD endpoints (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.79). Benefits were also seen in the reduction of revascularisation rates (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.83). Total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol were reduced in all trials but there was evidence of heterogeneity of effects. There was no clear evidence of any significant harm caused by statin prescription or of effects on patient quality of life.

Authors' conclusions
Although reductions in all-cause mortality, composite endpoints and revascularisations were found with no excess of adverse events, there was evidence of selective reporting of outcomes, failure to report adverse events and inclusion of people with cardiovascular disease. Only limited evidence showed that primary prevention with statins may be cost effective and improve patient quality of life. Caution should be taken in prescribing statins for primary prevention among people at low cardiovascular risk.

medicine for the healthy?

A lot of medicine  is disguised as science when in fact it's function is purely commercial. It advances only if it profits even if the cure is likely make believe. It hides through the obfuscation of statistics and higher math even the practitioner seldom understands. In fact it is good for them not to. They are often a moral people who would be troubled their advisement's and/or potions are impotent and maybe even portentous . They also have a prosperous hand in the game.  It also succors the patient into an illusion of competency as nothing is better to ease the mind than a confident player. The amusement is that the actors on all levels don't know or wish to know they are all in this absurdity. Everyone is benefiting on the ritual not the physical. Perhaps this an offshoot or side effect of such a system as a lot of medicine does clearly help.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science-D. Freeman

In 2001, rumors were circulating in Greek hospitals that surgery residents, eager to rack up scalpel time, were falsely diagnosing hapless Albanian immigrants with appendicitis. At the University of Ioannina medical school’s teaching hospital, a newly minted doctor named Athina Tatsioni was discussing the rumors with colleagues when a professor who had overheard asked her if she’d like to try to prove whether they were true—he seemed to be almost daring her. She accepted the challenge and, with the professor’s and other colleagues’ help, eventually produced a formal study showing that, for whatever reason, the appendices removed from patients with Albanian names in six Greek hospitals were more than three times as likely to be perfectly healthy as those removed from patients with Greek names. “It was hard to find a journal willing to publish it, but we did,” recalls Tatsioni. “I also discovered that I really liked research.” Good thing, because the study had actually been a sort of audition. The professor, it turned out, had been putting together a team of exceptionally brash and curious young clinicians and Ph.D.s to join him in tackling an unusual and controversial agenda.

Last spring, I sat in on one of the team’s weekly meetings on the medical school’s campus, which is plunked crazily across a series of sharp hills. The building in which we met, like most at the school, had the look of a barracks and was festooned with political graffiti. But the group convened in a spacious conference room that would have been at home at a Silicon Valley start-up. Sprawled around a large table were Tatsioni and eight other youngish Greek researchers and physicians who, in contrast to the pasty younger staff frequently seen in U.S. hospitals, looked like the casually glamorous cast of a television medical drama. The professor, a dapper and soft-spoken man named John Ioannidis, loosely presided.

One of the researchers, a biostatistician named Georgia Salanti, fired up a laptop and projector and started to take the group through a study she and a few colleagues were completing that asked this question: were drug companies manipulating published research to make their drugs look good? Salanti ticked off data that seemed to indicate they were, but the other team members almost immediately started interrupting. One noted that Salanti’s study didn’t address the fact that drug-company research wasn’t measuring critically important “hard” outcomes for patients, such as survival versus death, and instead tended to measure “softer” outcomes, such as self-reported symptoms (“my chest doesn’t hurt as much today”). Another pointed out that Salanti’s study ignored the fact that when drug-company data seemed to show patients’ health improving, the data often failed to show that the drug was responsible, or that the improvement was more than marginal.

Salanti remained poised, as if the grilling were par for the course, and gamely acknowledged that the suggestions were all good—but a single study can’t prove everything, she said. Just as I was getting the sense that the data in drug studies were endlessly malleable, Ioannidis, who had mostly been listening, delivered what felt like a coup de grâce: wasn’t it possible, he asked, that drug companies were carefully selecting the topics of their studies—for example, comparing their new drugs against those already known to be inferior to others on the market—so that they were ahead of the game even before the data juggling began? “Maybe sometimes it’s the questions that are biased, not the answers,” he said, flashing a friendly smile. Everyone nodded. Though the results of drug studies often make newspaper headlines, you have to wonder whether they prove anything at all. Indeed, given the breadth of the potential problems raised at the meeting, can any medical-research studies be trusted?

That question has been central to Ioannidis’s career. He’s what’s known as a meta-researcher, and he’s become one of the world’s foremost experts on the credibility of medical research. He and his team have shown, again and again, and in many different ways, that much of what biomedical researchers conclude in published studies—conclusions that doctors keep in mind when they prescribe antibiotics or blood-pressure medication, or when they advise us to consume more fiber or less meat, or when they recommend surgery for heart disease or back pain—is misleading, exaggerated, and often flat-out wrong. He charges that as much as 90 percent of the published medical information that doctors rely on is flawed. His work has been widely accepted by the medical community; it has been published in the field’s top journals, where it is heavily cited; and he is a big draw at conferences. Given this exposure, and the fact that his work broadly targets everyone else’s work in medicine, as well as everything that physicians do and all the health advice we get, Ioannidis may be one of the most influential scientists alive. Yet for all his influence, he worries that the field of medical research is so pervasively flawed, and so riddled with conflicts of interest, that it might be chronically resistant to change—or even to publicly admitting that there’s a problem.

The city of Ioannina is a big college town a short drive from the ruins of a 20,000-seat amphitheater and a Zeusian sanctuary built at the site of the Dodona oracle. The oracle was said to have issued pronouncements to priests through the rustling of a sacred oak tree. Today, a different oak tree at the site provides visitors with a chance to try their own hands at extracting a prophecy. “I take all the researchers who visit me here, and almost every single one of them asks the tree the same question,” Ioannidis tells me, as we contemplate the tree the day after the team’s meeting. “‘Will my research grant be approved?’” He chuckles, but Ioannidis (pronounced yo-NEE-dees) tends to laugh not so much in mirth as to soften the sting of his attack. And sure enough, he goes on to suggest that an obsession with winning funding has gone a long way toward weakening the reliability of medical research.

He first stumbled on the sorts of problems plaguing the field, he explains, as a young physician-researcher in the early 1990s at Harvard. At the time, he was interested in diagnosing rare diseases, for which a lack of case data can leave doctors with little to go on other than intuition and rules of thumb. But he noticed that doctors seemed to proceed in much the same manner even when it came to cancer, heart disease, and other common ailments. Where were the hard data that would back up their treatment decisions? There was plenty of published research, but much of it was remarkably unscientific, based largely on observations of a small number of cases. A new “evidence-based medicine” movement was just starting to gather force, and Ioannidis decided to throw himself into it, working first with prominent researchers at Tufts University and then taking positions at Johns Hopkins University and the National Institutes of Health. He was unusually well armed: he had been a math prodigy of near-celebrity status in high school in Greece, and had followed his parents, who were both physician-researchers, into medicine. Now he’d have a chance to combine math and medicine by applying rigorous statistical analysis to what seemed a surprisingly sloppy field. “I assumed that everything we physicians did was basically right, but now I was going to help verify it,” he says. “All we’d have to do was systematically review the evidence, trust what it told us, and then everything would be perfect.”

It didn’t turn out that way. In poring over medical journals, he was struck by how many findings of all types were refuted by later findings. Of course, medical-science “never minds” are hardly secret. And they sometimes make headlines, as when in recent years large studies or growing consensuses of researchers concluded that mammograms, colonoscopies, and PSA tests are far less useful cancer-detection tools than we had been told; or when widely prescribed antidepressants such as Prozac, Zoloft, and Paxil were revealed to be no more effective than a placebo for most cases of depression; or when we learned that staying out of the sun entirely can actually increase cancer risks; or when we were told that the advice to drink lots of water during intense exercise was potentially fatal; or when, last April, we were informed that taking fish oil, exercising, and doing puzzles doesn’t really help fend off Alzheimer’s disease, as long claimed. Peer-reviewed studies have come to opposite conclusions on whether using cell phones can cause brain cancer, whether sleeping more than eight hours a night is healthful or dangerous, whether taking aspirin every day is more likely to save your life or cut it short, and whether routine angioplasty works better than pills to unclog heart arteries.

But beyond the headlines, Ioannidis was shocked at the range and reach of the reversals he was seeing in everyday medical research. “Randomized controlled trials,” which compare how one group responds to a treatment against how an identical group fares without the treatment, had long been considered nearly unshakable evidence, but they, too, ended up being wrong some of the time. “I realized even our gold-standard research had a lot of problems,” he says. Baffled, he started looking for the specific ways in which studies were going wrong. And before long he discovered that the range of errors being committed was astonishing: from what questions researchers posed, to how they set up the studies, to which patients they recruited for the studies, to which measurements they took, to how they analyzed the data, to how they presented their results, to how particular studies came to be published in medical journals.

This array suggested a bigger, underlying dysfunction, and Ioannidis thought he knew what it was. “The studies were biased,” he says. “Sometimes they were overtly biased. Sometimes it was difficult to see the bias, but it was there.” Researchers headed into their studies wanting certain results—and, lo and behold, they were getting them. We think of the scientific process as being objective, rigorous, and even ruthless in separating out what is true from what we merely wish to be true, but in fact it’s easy to manipulate results, even unintentionally or unconsciously. “At every step in the process, there is room to distort results, a way to make a stronger claim or to select what is going to be concluded,” says Ioannidis. “There is an intellectual conflict of interest that pressures researchers to find whatever it is that is most likely to get them funded.”

Perhaps only a minority of researchers were succumbing to this bias, but their distorted findings were having an outsize effect on published research. To get funding and tenured positions, and often merely to stay afloat, researchers have to get their work published in well-regarded journals, where rejection rates can climb above 90 percent. Not surprisingly, the studies that tend to make the grade are those with eye-catching findings. But while coming up with eye-catching theories is relatively easy, getting reality to bear them out is another matter. The great majority collapse under the weight of contradictory data when studied rigorously. Imagine, though, that five different research teams test an interesting theory that’s making the rounds, and four of the groups correctly prove the idea false, while the one less cautious group incorrectly “proves” it true through some combination of error, fluke, and clever selection of data. Guess whose findings your doctor ends up reading about in the journal, and you end up hearing about on the evening news? Researchers can sometimes win attention by refuting a prominent finding, which can help to at least raise doubts about results, but in general it is far more rewarding to add a new insight or exciting-sounding twist to existing research than to retest its basic premises—after all, simply re-proving someone else’s results is unlikely to get you published, and attempting to undermine the work of respected colleagues can have ugly professional repercussions.

In the late 1990s, Ioannidis set up a base at the University of Ioannina. He pulled together his team, which remains largely intact today, and started chipping away at the problem in a series of papers that pointed out specific ways certain studies were getting misleading results. Other meta-researchers were also starting to spotlight disturbingly high rates of error in the medical literature. But Ioannidis wanted to get the big picture across, and to do so with solid data, clear reasoning, and good statistical analysis. The project dragged on, until finally he retreated to the tiny island of Sikinos in the Aegean Sea, where he drew inspiration from the relatively primitive surroundings and the intellectual traditions they recalled. “A pervasive theme of ancient Greek literature is that you need to pursue the truth, no matter what the truth might be,” he says. In 2005, he unleashed two papers that challenged the foundations of medical research.

He chose to publish one paper, fittingly, in the online journal PLoS Medicine, which is committed to running any methodologically sound article without regard to how “interesting” the results may be. In the paper, Ioannidis laid out a detailed mathematical proof that, assuming modest levels of researcher bias, typically imperfect research techniques, and the well-known tendency to focus on exciting rather than highly plausible theories, researchers will come up with wrong findings most of the time. Simply put, if you’re attracted to ideas that have a good chance of being wrong, and if you’re motivated to prove them right, and if you have a little wiggle room in how you assemble the evidence, you’ll probably succeed in proving wrong theories right. His model predicted, in different fields of medical research, rates of wrongness roughly corresponding to the observed rates at which findings were later convincingly refuted: 80 percent of non-randomized studies (by far the most common type) turn out to be wrong, as do 25 percent of supposedly gold-standard randomized trials, and as much as 10 percent of the platinum-standard large randomized trials. The article spelled out his belief that researchers were frequently manipulating data analyses, chasing career-advancing findings rather than good science, and even using the peer-review process—in which journals ask researchers to help decide which studies to publish—to suppress opposing views. “You can question some of the details of John’s calculations, but it’s hard to argue that the essential ideas aren’t absolutely correct,” says Doug Altman, an Oxford University researcher who directs the Centre for Statistics in Medicine.

Still, Ioannidis anticipated that the community might shrug off his findings: sure, a lot of dubious research makes it into journals, but we researchers and physicians know to ignore it and focus on the good stuff, so what’s the big deal? The other paper headed off that claim. He zoomed in on 49 of the most highly regarded research findings in medicine over the previous 13 years, as judged by the science community’s two standard measures: the papers had appeared in the journals most widely cited in research articles, and the 49 articles themselves were the most widely cited articles in these journals. These were articles that helped lead to the widespread popularity of treatments such as the use of hormone-replacement therapy for menopausal women, vitamin E to reduce the risk of heart disease, coronary stents to ward off heart attacks, and daily low-dose aspirin to control blood pressure and prevent heart attacks and strokes. Ioannidis was putting his contentions to the test not against run-of-the-mill research, or even merely well-accepted research, but against the absolute tip of the research pyramid. Of the 49 articles, 45 claimed to have uncovered effective interventions. Thirty-four of these claims had been retested, and 14 of these, or 41 percent, had been convincingly shown to be wrong or significantly exaggerated. If between a third and a half of the most acclaimed research in medicine was proving untrustworthy, the scope and impact of the problem were undeniable. That article was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Driving me back to campus in his smallish SUV—after insisting, as he apparently does with all his visitors, on showing me a nearby lake and the six monasteries situated on an islet within it—Ioannidis apologized profusely for running a yellow light, explaining with a laugh that he didn’t trust the truck behind him to stop. Considering his willingness, even eagerness, to slap the face of the medical-research community, Ioannidis comes off as thoughtful, upbeat, and deeply civil. He’s a careful listener, and his frequent grin and semi-apologetic chuckle can make the sharp prodding of his arguments seem almost good-natured. He is as quick, if not quicker, to question his own motives and competence as anyone else’s. A neat and compact 45-year-old with a trim mustache, he presents as a sort of dashing nerd—Giancarlo Giannini with a bit of Mr. Bean.

The humility and graciousness seem to serve him well in getting across a message that is not easy to digest or, for that matter, believe: that even highly regarded researchers at prestigious institutions sometimes churn out attention-grabbing findings rather than findings likely to be right. But Ioannidis points out that obviously questionable findings cram the pages of top medical journals, not to mention the morning headlines. Consider, he says, the endless stream of results from nutritional studies in which researchers follow thousands of people for some number of years, tracking what they eat and what supplements they take, and how their health changes over the course of the study. “Then the researchers start asking, ‘What did vitamin E do? What did vitamin C or D or A do? What changed with calorie intake, or protein or fat intake? What happened to cholesterol levels? Who got what type of cancer?’” he says. “They run everything through the mill, one at a time, and they start finding associations, and eventually conclude that vitamin X lowers the risk of cancer Y, or this food helps with the risk of that disease.” In a single week this fall, Google’s news page offered these headlines: “More Omega-3 Fats Didn’t Aid Heart Patients”; “Fruits, Vegetables Cut Cancer Risk for Smokers”; “Soy May Ease Sleep Problems in Older Women”; and dozens of similar stories.

When a five-year study of 10,000 people finds that those who take more vitamin X are less likely to get cancer Y, you’d think you have pretty good reason to take more vitamin X, and physicians routinely pass these recommendations on to patients. But these studies often sharply conflict with one another. Studies have gone back and forth on the cancer-preventing powers of vitamins A, D, and E; on the heart-health benefits of eating fat and carbs; and even on the question of whether being overweight is more likely to extend or shorten your life. How should we choose among these dueling, high-profile nutritional findings? Ioannidis suggests a simple approach: ignore them all.

For starters, he explains, the odds are that in any large database of many nutritional and health factors, there will be a few apparent connections that are in fact merely flukes, not real health effects—it’s a bit like combing through long, random strings of letters and claiming there’s an important message in any words that happen to turn up. But even if a study managed to highlight a genuine health connection to some nutrient, you’re unlikely to benefit much from taking more of it, because we consume thousands of nutrients that act together as a sort of network, and changing intake of just one of them is bound to cause ripples throughout the network that are far too complex for these studies to detect, and that may be as likely to harm you as help you. Even if changing that one factor does bring on the claimed improvement, there’s still a good chance that it won’t do you much good in the long run, because these studies rarely go on long enough to track the decades-long course of disease and ultimately death. Instead, they track easily measurable health “markers” such as cholesterol levels, blood pressure, and blood-sugar levels, and meta-experts have shown that changes in these markers often don’t correlate as well with long-term health as we have been led to believe.

On the relatively rare occasions when a study does go on long enough to track mortality, the findings frequently upend those of the shorter studies. (For example, though the vast majority of studies of overweight individuals link excess weight to ill health, the longest of them haven’t convincingly shown that overweight people are likely to die sooner, and a few of them have seemingly demonstrated that moderately overweight people are likely to live longer.) And these problems are aside from ubiquitous measurement errors (for example, people habitually misreport their diets in studies), routine misanalysis (researchers rely on complex software capable of juggling results in ways they don’t always understand), and the less common, but serious, problem of outright fraud (which has been revealed, in confidential surveys, to be much more widespread than scientists like to acknowledge).

If a study somehow avoids every one of these problems and finds a real connection to long-term changes in health, you’re still not guaranteed to benefit, because studies report average results that typically represent a vast range of individual outcomes. Should you be among the lucky minority that stands to benefit, don’t expect a noticeable improvement in your health, because studies usually detect only modest effects that merely tend to whittle your chances of succumbing to a particular disease from small to somewhat smaller. “The odds that anything useful will survive from any of these studies are poor,” says Ioannidis—dismissing in a breath a good chunk of the research into which we sink about $100 billion a year in the United States alone.

And so it goes for all medical studies, he says. Indeed, nutritional studies aren’t the worst. Drug studies have the added corruptive force of financial conflict of interest. The exciting links between genes and various diseases and traits that are relentlessly hyped in the press for heralding miraculous around-the-corner treatments for everything from colon cancer to schizophrenia have in the past proved so vulnerable to error and distortion, Ioannidis has found, that in some cases you’d have done about as well by throwing darts at a chart of the genome. (These studies seem to have improved somewhat in recent years, but whether they will hold up or be useful in treatment are still open questions.) Vioxx, Zelnorm, and Baycol were among the widely prescribed drugs found to be safe and effective in large randomized controlled trials before the drugs were yanked from the market as unsafe or not so effective, or both.

“Often the claims made by studies are so extravagant that you can immediately cross them out without needing to know much about the specific problems with the studies,” Ioannidis says. But of course it’s that very extravagance of claim (one large randomized controlled trial even proved that secret prayer by unknown parties can save the lives of heart-surgery patients, while another proved that secret prayer can harm them) that helps gets these findings into journals and then into our treatments and lifestyles, especially when the claim builds on impressive-sounding evidence. “Even when the evidence shows that a particular research idea is wrong, if you have thousands of scientists who have invested their careers in it, they’ll continue to publish papers on it,” he says. “It’s like an epidemic, in the sense that they’re infected with these wrong ideas, and they’re spreading it to other researchers through journals.”

Though scientists and science journalists are constantly talking up the value of the peer-review process, researchers admit among themselves that biased, erroneous, and even blatantly fraudulent studies easily slip through it. Nature, the grande dame of science journals, stated in a 2006 editorial, “Scientists understand that peer review per se provides only a minimal assurance of quality, and that the public conception of peer review as a stamp of authentication is far from the truth.” What’s more, the peer-review process often pressures researchers to shy away from striking out in genuinely new directions, and instead to build on the findings of their colleagues (that is, their potential reviewers) in ways that only seem like breakthroughs—as with the exciting-sounding gene linkages (autism genes identified!) and nutritional findings (olive oil lowers blood pressure!) that are really just dubious and conflicting variations on a theme.

Most journal editors don’t even claim to protect against the problems that plague these studies. University and government research overseers rarely step in to directly enforce research quality, and when they do, the science community goes ballistic over the outside interference. The ultimate protection against research error and bias is supposed to come from the way scientists constantly retest each other’s results—except they don’t. Only the most prominent findings are likely to be put to the test, because there’s likely to be publication payoff in firming up the proof, or contradicting it.

But even for medicine’s most influential studies, the evidence sometimes remains surprisingly narrow. Of those 45 super-cited studies that Ioannidis focused on, 11 had never been retested. Perhaps worse, Ioannidis found that even when a research error is outed, it typically persists for years or even decades. He looked at three prominent health studies from the 1980s and 1990s that were each later soundly refuted, and discovered that researchers continued to cite the original results as correct more often than as flawed—in one case for at least 12 years after the results were discredited.

Doctors may notice that their patients don’t seem to fare as well with certain treatments as the literature would lead them to expect, but the field is appropriately conditioned to subjugate such anecdotal evidence to study findings. Yet much, perhaps even most, of what doctors do has never been formally put to the test in credible studies, given that the need to do so became obvious to the field only in the 1990s, leaving it playing catch-up with a century or more of non-evidence-based medicine, and contributing to Ioannidis’s shockingly high estimate of the degree to which medical knowledge is flawed. That we’re not routinely made seriously ill by this shortfall, he argues, is due largely to the fact that most medical interventions and advice don’t address life-and-death situations, but rather aim to leave us marginally healthier or less unhealthy, so we usually neither gain nor risk all that much.

Medical research is not especially plagued with wrongness. Other meta-research experts have confirmed that similar issues distort research in all fields of science, from physics to economics (where the highly regarded economists J. Bradford DeLong and Kevin Lang once showed how a remarkably consistent paucity of strong evidence in published economics studies made it unlikely that any of them were right). And needless to say, things only get worse when it comes to the pop expertise that endlessly spews at us from diet, relationship, investment, and parenting gurus and pundits. But we expect more of scientists, and especially of medical scientists, given that we believe we are staking our lives on their results. The public hardly recognizes how bad a bet this is. The medical community itself might still be largely oblivious to the scope of the problem, if Ioannidis hadn’t forced a confrontation when he published his studies in 2005.

Ioannidis initially thought the community might come out fighting. Instead, it seemed relieved, as if it had been guiltily waiting for someone to blow the whistle, and eager to hear more. David Gorski, a surgeon and researcher at Detroit’s Barbara Ann Karmanos Cancer Institute, noted in his prominent medical blog that when he presented Ioannidis’s paper on highly cited research at a professional meeting, “not a single one of my surgical colleagues was the least bit surprised or disturbed by its findings.” Ioannidis offers a theory for the relatively calm reception. “I think that people didn’t feel I was only trying to provoke them, because I showed that it was a community problem, instead of pointing fingers at individual examples of bad research,” he says. In a sense, he gave scientists an opportunity to cluck about the wrongness without having to acknowledge that they themselves succumb to it—it was something everyone else did.

To say that Ioannidis’s work has been embraced would be an understatement. His PLoS Medicine paper is the most downloaded in the journal’s history, and it’s not even Ioannidis’s most-cited work—that would be a paper he published in Nature Genetics on the problems with gene-link studies. Other researchers are eager to work with him: he has published papers with 1,328 different co-authors at 538 institutions in 43 countries, he says. Last year he received, by his estimate, invitations to speak at 1,000 conferences and institutions around the world, and he was accepting an average of about five invitations a month until a case last year of excessive-travel-induced vertigo led him to cut back. Even so, in the weeks before I visited him he had addressed an AIDS conference in San Francisco, the European Society for Clinical Investigation, Harvard’s School of Public Health, and the medical schools at Stanford and Tufts.

The irony of his having achieved this sort of success by accusing the medical-research community of chasing after success is not lost on him, and he notes that it ought to raise the question of whether he himself might be pumping up his findings. “If I did a study and the results showed that in fact there wasn’t really much bias in research, would I be willing to publish it?” he asks. “That would create a real psychological conflict for me.” But his bigger worry, he says, is that while his fellow researchers seem to be getting the message, he hasn’t necessarily forced anyone to do a better job. He fears he won’t in the end have done much to improve anyone’s health. “There may not be fierce objections to what I’m saying,” he explains. “But it’s difficult to change the way that everyday doctors, patients, and healthy people think and behave.”

As helter-skelter as the University of Ioannina Medical School campus looks, the hospital abutting it looks reassuringly stolid. Athina Tatsioni has offered to take me on a tour of the facility, but we make it only as far as the entrance when she is greeted—accosted, really—by a worried-looking older woman. Tatsioni, normally a bit reserved, is warm and animated with the woman, and the two have a brief but intense conversation before embracing and saying goodbye. Tatsioni explains to me that the woman and her husband were patients of hers years ago; now the husband has been admitted to the hospital with abdominal pains, and Tatsioni has promised she’ll stop by his room later to say hello. Recalling the appendicitis story, I prod a bit, and she confesses she plans to do her own exam. She needs to be circumspect, though, so she won’t appear to be second-guessing the other doctors.

Tatsioni doesn’t so much fear that someone will carve out the man’s healthy appendix. Rather, she’s concerned that, like many patients, he’ll end up with prescriptions for multiple drugs that will do little to help him, and may well harm him. “Usually what happens is that the doctor will ask for a suite of biochemical tests—liver fat, pancreas function, and so on,” she tells me. “The tests could turn up something, but they’re probably irrelevant. Just having a good talk with the patient and getting a close history is much more likely to tell me what’s wrong.” Of course, the doctors have all been trained to order these tests, she notes, and doing so is a lot quicker than a long bedside chat. They’re also trained to ply the patient with whatever drugs might help whack any errant test numbers back into line. What they’re not trained to do is to go back and look at the research papers that helped make these drugs the standard of care. “When you look the papers up, you often find the drugs didn’t even work better than a placebo. And no one tested how they worked in combination with the other drugs,” she says. “Just taking the patient off everything can improve their health right away.” But not only is checking out the research another time-consuming task, patients often don’t even like it when they’re taken off their drugs, she explains; they find their prescriptions reassuring.

Later, Ioannidis tells me he makes a point of having several clinicians on his team. “Researchers and physicians often don’t understand each other; they speak different languages,” he says. Knowing that some of his researchers are spending more than half their time seeing patients makes him feel the team is better positioned to bridge that gap; their experience informs the team’s research with firsthand knowledge, and helps the team shape its papers in a way more likely to hit home with physicians. It’s not that he envisions doctors making all their decisions based solely on solid evidence—there’s simply too much complexity in patient treatment to pin down every situation with a great study. “Doctors need to rely on instinct and judgment to make choices,” he says. “But these choices should be as informed as possible by the evidence. And if the evidence isn’t good, doctors should know that, too. And so should patients.”

In fact, the question of whether the problems with medical research should be broadcast to the public is a sticky one in the meta-research community. Already feeling that they’re fighting to keep patients from turning to alternative medical treatments such as homeopathy, or misdiagnosing themselves on the Internet, or simply neglecting medical treatment altogether, many researchers and physicians aren’t eager to provide even more reason to be skeptical of what doctors do—not to mention how public disenchantment with medicine could affect research funding. Ioannidis dismisses these concerns. “If we don’t tell the public about these problems, then we’re no better than nonscientists who falsely claim they can heal,” he says. “If the drugs don’t work and we’re not sure how to treat something, why should we claim differently? Some fear that there may be less funding because we stop claiming we can prove we have miraculous treatments. But if we can’t really provide those miracles, how long will we be able to fool the public anyway? The scientific enterprise is probably the most fantastic achievement in human history, but that doesn’t mean we have a right to overstate what we’re accomplishing.”

We could solve much of the wrongness problem, Ioannidis says, if the world simply stopped expecting scientists to be right. That’s because being wrong in science is fine, and even necessary—as long as scientists recognize that they blew it, report their mistake openly instead of disguising it as a success, and then move on to the next thing, until they come up with the very occasional genuine breakthrough. But as long as careers remain contingent on producing a stream of research that’s dressed up to seem more right than it is, scientists will keep delivering exactly that.

“Science is a noble endeavor, but it’s also a low-yield endeavor,” he says. “I’m not sure that more than a very small percentage of medical research is ever likely to lead to major improvements in clinical outcomes and quality of life. We should be very comfortable with that fact.”

self interest

"...consider what happened when the US Preventive Services Task Force announced last November that, based on the scientific evidence it weighed, it no longer recommends mammograms for women aged 40 through 49 years. The task force also recommended that women aged 50 years and older no longer receive annual mammograms but, instead, get them every other year. Public outcry and pushback from several medical societies and expert groups like the American Cancer Society swayed Senate Democrats to rewrite their pending healthcare reform legislation to guarantee mammogram coverage."